Nigeria’s leading macroeconomic thinkers under the aegis of Nigeria Association of Macroeconomic Modellers have issued a strong call for a new generation of locally developed economic models capable of capturing the country’s complex realities and guiding long-term development.
This position was declared at the 2025 International Hybrid Conference of the Nigeria Association of Macroeconomic Modellers (NAMM), held from 26–27 November at the University of Ibadan, with the theme: “Policy Innovations for Economic Recovery, Structural Transformation, and Digital Macroeconomic Modelling.”
At a high-level gathering of economists, policymakers and data scientists in Ibadan, participants argued that Nigeria can no longer rely on economic frameworks borrowed from other countries whose structures differ significantly from its own. They warned that doing so risks repeated policy failures, shallow recoveries and misdiagnosed economic problems.
A former senior official of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Dr. Mohammed Tumala, noted that Nigeria’s recurring cycles of instability are rooted in unresolved structural distortions that conventional models fail to explain. He maintained that real progress requires tools designed around Nigeria’s unique economic architecture — from its informal sector and institutional bottlenecks to its commodity-dependence and demographic pressures.
Tumala emphasized that the global economy is in the middle of a dramatic shift driven by digitalisation, where value is increasingly tied to intangible assets. Without strengthening its data systems, technological capacity and analytical institutions, he said, Nigeria risks widening its developmental gap.
He further highlighted that global disruptions from the 2008 financial crisis to more recent shocks exposed the shortcomings of outdated modelling tools, not the absence of data. According to him, economic management in the digital age must be grounded in modern statistical infrastructure and innovative research methods.
NAMM President, Prof. Phillip Alege, underscored the association’s plan to develop a Nigerian structural transformation model that can support policy choices in an era of unpredictable global dynamics. He stated that Africa needs analytical tools capable of simulating institutional behaviour, political incentives, household dynamics and informal sector activities which are variables largely overlooked by traditional models.
“This is a forward-looking effort to build the analytical architecture that will shape Nigeria’s economic direction for decades,” he said.
Across board, participants agreed that Nigeria must embrace sophisticated modelling techniques, including real-time digital data, agent-based simulations and integrated national statistical systems, to reflect the full complexity of its economy and chart a durable path to development.